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Daily Pfennig
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  • The Italian Job...

    * The dollar continues to rally... * Obama bounce picks up steam... * ECB and BOE meet this week... * Brazilian reals on a roll! ** The Italian Job... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! A very icy Tuesday here in St. Louis... When I left home this morning (I live Southwest of the office) there was nothing on the ground, but as I got closer to the office, I could see the ground was wet. Arriving in the parking lot, I found the wet to be nothing but ice! You should have seen me attempting to walk from my car to the front door! Shuffling my feet very slowly was more like it, but can you blame me? That's all I need is to take a nasty fall on ice when I'm already walking with a cane! Oh well, I'm here, and safe... Well, front and center this morning, the dollar has gained a huge chunk of ground back from the euro and Swiss franc that it had lost last month. The euro has seen the underside of 1.34 in almost a month, but that's where it sits this morning. And the Swiss franc has taken a tumble too... So, what's the reason behind this move? Ahhh grasshopper, sit, and listen, there's a story to this that you'll want to hear!...
  • Coordinated Rate Cuts!

    * Yen trades to 98! * Carry Trades unwinding hurt high yielders... * Gold rallies back to $900! * Central Bank rate cuts.... ** Coordinated Rate Cuts! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... There's a ton of stuff to talk about today, one of which is the amazing run that Japanese yen has had in the past month, but particularly the last week! No need to sneak a peak at the currency round-up, Japanese yen is trading 98.80! WOW! I could be acting like a contortionist and trying to slap myself on the back, but that would unprofessional... And besides, the rest of the currencies are taking shots to the mid-section. Anyway... Blow the horn, the Carry Trade (for yen) is dead, may it rest in peace! OK... The currencies tried like all get out yesterday to rally VS the dollar, the euro did end the day 1% higher on the day, which after the bloodshed of the past month, I'll take that any old time! I would love to go back to 2005 (not really, but for this conversation's sake I will) and pull out some old Pfennigs where I talked about all the naysayers talking about a break up of the euro... We had the NO votes from France and Denmark on accepting the European Union's (EU) Constitution, we had riots in the streets of France, we had rising interest rates in the U.S. and dozens and dozens of naysayers called out the euro and said it would collapse under the weight. I said then, and I'll say now... HOGWASH!...
  • Retail Sales Disappoint Again...

    * Dollar rally continues... * U.S. data continues to be weak... * Gold and the A$... * Sterling melts away... ** Retail Sales Disappoint... Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! Michael Phelps didn't swim in any finals yesterday, so no Gold for the U.S! I'm just floored by this kid! My oldest son, Andrew, was a pretty good swimmer in his day, but my goodness, this kid is on a different planet! OK... Well, front and center this morning, we have a report that just printed that shows U.S. Home Foreclosures rose 55% in July. Bank seizures almost tripled according to RealtyTrac Inc. That's sad folks, simply sad... I look at this report and shake my head in disgust for Alan Greenspan. Yes, Big Al Greenspan is the root of all evil in the housing meltdown... Sure there were the greedy folks that booked loans that shouldn't have happened and all that, but down at the root of the meltdown you'll find Big Al's picture!...
  • Profit Taking Dominates The Day...

    * Dollar faces Dynamic Duo this week... * RBA leaves rates unchanged... * Comparing decades... * Tankan is somewhat positive... ** Profit Taking Dominates The Day... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! In keeping with Pfennig tradition, I begin each July with words from one of my fave bands of the 70's, Uriah Heep... There I was on a July morning... (I could go on, but you get the point.) Well, the profit taking that I talked about yesterday morning, continued for most of the morning yesterday, causing the euro to fall from the 1.5810 level I saw when I turned on the screens, to the low 1.57 area. It had to be profit taking because why would anyone buy dollars VS euros as a long time investment, with the dynamic duo of the Jobs Jamboree and an ECB rate decision staring the dollar bulls right in the face this week......
  • London Traders Buy Dollars...

    * U.S. and U.K. Holidays... * Kiwi "catches up"... * Brazil's Current Account... * Watch out for protectionism......
  • Dollar bounces, but why?...

    * Dollar bounces, but why?... * ECB keeps rates unchanged... * Rand and Real reverse course... * India still growing......