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  • Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting...

    * G20 largely a non-event... * Pound moves up... * Brazil falls on sell off of emerging markets... * Japan enters recession... ** Nothing comes out of the G20 meeting... Good day...and welcome back to another work week. I driving into work this morning and started thinking about the growing number of people who no longer have jobs to report to. And the problems are no longer just concentrated on the manufacturing sector. I was shocked at the long list of retail stores which are planning to shut down after the holiday season. The situation in the US economy continues to deteriorate, and unfortunately things are going to get much worse here in the US before they turn around. On that cheery note, I'll get started....
  • Don't be fooled by the US GDP...

    * Don't be fooled by the US GDP... * Canada, Mexico, and Brazil rally... * Aussie dollar falls... * Japanese to keep rates unchanged... ** Don't be fooled by the US GDP... Good day...And welcome to the last day of July. The dollar held its ground through most of the trading day but started to sell off as the day wound down. The currency markets seem to be stuck in a summer doldrums, with few dramatic moves. With many of the head traders enjoying a summer break (ours included), currency desks are reluctant to take on large positions. And who can blame them as the recent global economic data has left investors wondering where to turn. As I have explained to several recent callers, the global economy is experiencing a slowdown as the high commodity prices and a slumping US economy has hurt growth. The economic releases have shown an overall slowdown in growth, and rising global inflation. But the overall slowdown will have differing effects on the currencies. Asia is slowing, but a slowdown from double digit growth in China and India is much different than a slowdown in the US where growth is around 2%. Also, the Asian countries have kept interest rates low to try and keep their currencies from appreciating too quickly. These countries are therefore in a much better position to combat inflation, and can allow currency appreciation to help combat rising prices....