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Leading Indicators Fall!

* Euro rebounds! * Forecasting a severe recession... * Commodities rebound! * Canadian inflation problems... ** Leading Indicators Fall! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! Yesterday did indeed turn into a Tub Thumpin' Thursday for the euro, so let's hope today ends up being a Fantastico Friday! Well... The game of "your economy is worse than mine" backfired on the dollar bulls yesterday, as the Leading Indicators printed an awful number. I said yesterday that it was too bad that the markets normally ignored this data... But they didn't yesterday, as the number was so bad, they couldn't ignore it... Sort of like that spoiled rotten bratty kid throwing themselves to the floor of the grocery store, and throwing a temper tantrum because you said they couldn't have a candy bar! If you're next in line to check out at the grocery store, and you want to ignore the child, but you just can't because it's so obnoxious! Well, that's how it was with Leading Indicators yesterday... Here's the skinny......

Published Fri, Aug 08 2008 8:51 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Commodities, Gold, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Canada

German Investor Confidence Rises!

* Gold is oversold... * Dollar index is overbought... * RBA to cut rates... * More tears to shed in housing... ** German Investor Confidence Rises! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Whew! A long day yesterday for me and the kids on the trading desk. I suspect today will be cut from the same cloth. We have quite a few currency investors panicking and bailing on their plan to diversify. It's not a One-Way street folks... No one ever said it would be! But those that held on to their positions during the dollar rally of 2005, were rewarded, as I believe they will this time too... But then, I could be wrong......

Published Tue, Aug 08 2008 8:24 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Gold, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Eurozone, Home Prices

Trade Deficit Narrows...

* Dollar rally continues... * Be careful what you wish for! * Prime loans now in trouble... * Norges Bank to keep rates unchanged... ** Trade Deficit Narrows... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Tuesday saw more volatility in the currencies as the dollar went back in forth, but well within a trading range. The euro has melted down to the 1.49 area, where it seems to have found some breathing room. The Trade Deficit for June shrunk, but the Budget Deficit widened... Again, the fundamentals in the U.S. continue to point to recession. All this and more in today's Pfennig, so grab a cup o'java, a chair, and let's go! OK... Front and center this morning, I want to talk about the Trade Deficit, which in June showed a narrowing from $59.8 Billion to $56.8 Billion, which looks good, right? Well... As I told you in yesterday's Pfennig, you have to be careful what you wish for. This drop in the Trade Deficit pushed the dollar higher yesterday morning, and got me thinking... (I know, that could be dangerous, but stay with me here...) A stronger dollar will not play well, share toys, and keep its hands to itself, with exports... And exports have been something short of amazing with the dollar being weak. In fact, exports have accounted for the largest contribution to GDP in the past 5 quarters! (with U.S. Consumer spending drying up, this is possible!) Add to that, everyone getting goose bumps regarding a global slowdown... If the world slows down, like the dollar bulls are claiming they will, thus propping up the dollar, then U.S. exports will slow even more!...

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 8:54 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Consumer Confidence, Bank of England, GDP, Eurozone, Deficit, Norges Bank, Washington Mutual, Toll Brothers

US consumers come to the rescue of the dollar...

* US consumers come to the rescue of the $... * European data comes in negative... * Currencies down under take a hit... * Goldman suggests investments in Norway... ** US consumers come to the rescue of the dollar... Good day... The dollar bulls took control of the currency markets yesterday after the US consumer confidence numbers looked slightly less awful than expected. The better than expected confidence number caused the dollar to jump over one and a half cents vs. the Euro and close to 1% vs. the NZD$. The gain by the US$ was the biggest one day move in almost two months. Chuck, who is enjoying a much deserved break this week, sent me his thoughts on this dramatic move by the dollar: "It sure looks like the markets once again, took the bait hook, line and sinker yesterday... I mean, Consumer Confidence rises from a deep dark abyss, and the markets were singing, ding, dong the witch is dead, ding dong the wicked witch is dead. The wicked witch here is the bear and what it's done to the markets this year. Since November, stocks have lost plenty of ground, and I for one truly suspect there will be more losses in the days ahead. But... Not yesterday, and not a losing day for the dollar either! Probably the best 1 day performance I've seen in the dollar in some time......

Published Wed, Jul 07 2008 9:16 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Consumer Confidence, New Zealand, Norway, Staycation

Another Perfect Storm Averted!

* Paulson calms fears... For now! * The dollar gets sold again... * More risk events... * Bill Gross wants dollars! ** Another Perfect Storm Averted! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... One of St. Louis' landmarks was sold this morning... One of my fave companies for a number of reasons, Anheuser Busch, was sold to InBev this morning... Just another in the line of Corporate Headquarters that will no longer reside in St. Louis... At one in the 80's, St. Louis was the 5th largest city, with Corporate Headquarters, in Western Hemisphere... I doubt we even are on the list these days... OK... Well... Friday was chock full-o-fun, and not fun for some, as U.S. Treasury Secretary, Paulson, tried to calm the markets regarding Freddie and Fannie... That may have some soothing effect in the short run, but if home prices keep falling, and mortgage backed bonds keep losing value, this problem will return to the markets......

Published Mon, Jul 07 2008 9:21 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Consumer Confidence, Canada, Eurozone, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, IndyMac

Are Freddie and Fannie Insolvent?

* Poole slams Freddie and Fannie... * The dollar gets sold again... * Bad data for the dollar today... * Renminbi matches '07 performance! ** Are Freddie and Fannie Insolvent? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fabulous Friday indeed! The euro broke out of that tight trading range yesterday, we had a distorted Weekly Jobless Claims number, and the un-dynamic duo of Ben and Hank got taken to the woodshed by Ron Paul... All this and more as we head into the 2nd Friday of July! OK... First on this Fabulous Friday, I forgot to talk about ex-St. Louis Fed President William Poole's comments about Freddie and Fannie yesterday... These comments were responsible for bringing the mortgage meltdown front and center to the markets once again... So... What did Poole say? Well... Poole flatly stated that, "Freddie and Fannie Mae are insolvent"... Uh-Oh! As I thought earlier this week that this meltdown of Freddie and Fannie Mae could be the risk event I've been talking about... Well... If Poole is correct... We're here......

Published Fri, Jul 07 2008 9:13 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Consumer Confidence, Ben Bernanke, Trichet, Carry Trade, Eurozone, Jobs, Renminbi, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Where There's Smoke...

* Fed Head Yellen comes clean! * $75 Billion in Capital needed? * Another risk even? * Higher inflation for Brazil... ** Where There's Smoke... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm writing from home today as I have to deal with a catalytic converter this morning before heading into work. Writing from home is always a challenge in that I don't have my trading screens going with news scrolling continuously... But... I carry on despite my challenges! The euro recovered a bit yesterday after last Thursday's tailspin... And the recovery was smack dab in the face of some weak economic news from Germany! Here's what got the euro going and moving up once again yesterday......

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 9:55 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Brazilian Real, China, Recession, Euro, Consumer Confidence, Bank of England, Carry Trade, Janet Yellen

FOMC Meeting Day!

* What will the Fed do? * Going into the fryer? * Trichet tries to cool the jets... * India raises rates 50 BPS! ** FOMC Day! Good day... And a what should be "Wild" Wednesday to you! This is the day the Fed's "true" colors come through in my opinion. The markets were all fired up a couple of weeks ago, and the air in their balloon has been slowly let out up to now. But today, we'll see if their balloon get re-inflated or goes "pop"! You see, today is the day the Fed's FOMC meeting adjourns and a rate announcement along with a new bias will be the order of business at the end of the meeting. The Fed Heads normally eat their lunch, which was probably packed in brown bag consisting of a baloney sandwich (since that's what they normally spew is baloney!), some chips and ho-ho's... HAHAHAHAHA!...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rates, Trichet, The Fed, FOMC, India

Fighting Inflation...

* CPI increases... * Eurozone inflation increases too! * G-8 lets currencies slip by... * TIC Flows data today... **Fighting Inflation... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! I hope you had a grand Father's Day... Mine was fabulous! And a great weather day too! Cards take 2 of 3 from the Phillies after getting royally spanked on Friday night! UGH! And I got to see my first ever Polo game on Saturday! I've seen 100's of water polo games, as son Andrew was a good player in High School, but never a Polo game on horses... Absolutely cool! OK... Friday was not a good day in the currencies as once again the dollar took the hammer and swung a mighty swing. The euro spent the day in the 1.53 handle, as more and more talk about the Fed fighting inflation took hold of the markets. I'm still resisting this rhetoric by the Fed, and believe that eventually the markets will come to the realization that the Fed is simply "talking the talk" and are unwilling to "walk the walk"......

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 9:52 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Carry Trade, Consumer Price Index, Eurozone, G8