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Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data...

* Dollar rally is stopped! * FOMC meeting minutes... * Housing data you won't see on TV! * Sweden to sell Gold... ** Currencies Rally On Bad U.S. Data... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm back. I just couldn't answer the bell yesterday morning, as the night before was simply rough on your old Pfennig writer. I'm in my last week of treatment and it has been a tough row to hoe, and I feel bad that I was not able to stiffen the back and make it through the day. But, no biggie, I've got great people here to take care of things when I'm gone... When I finally dragged myself out of bed yesterday, I saw that the dollar was taking liberties with the euro and other currencies once again. It was another game of "your economy is worse than mine", as German Business Confidence took a ride on the slippery slope down. You should have seen the "bandwagon jumpers" falling all over themselves to write about how cool it was to own the dollar. I chuckled, no big laugh as that might upset my stomach! But, their claim to be cool, was quickly squashed like a bug, when the housing numbers printed, and then later in the day, with the latest FOMC meeting minutes... More on this in a minute.......

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 9:02 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Gold, Home Sales, Euro, European Central Bank, Sweden, FOMC

A Downward Revision of Eurozone Growth...

* Euro rally ends quickly! * Housing Data continues to be bad... * OECD wants Norway's rates increased... * The Aden Sisters on a Wednesday! ** A Downward Revision of Eurozone Growth... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I'm sitting here wondering what to write about this morning, and on the radio is a classic song by Led Zeppelin, Dazed and Confused... Seems quite apropos, eh? I say this because that's what I've been for the last month, as the dollar got up from its death bed, and there's not a sign of any medicine that was prescribed had been taken! Oh well, why would I think that things would change for me at this stage of my life, I've been dazed and confused for a long time! HA! I'm sure that's what a lot of people are saying right now anyway... The euro rebounded over 1-cent yesterday, but that rebound has been wiped out completely in the overnight markets... There's just no lasting power in any currency rally VS the dollar right now. And as I keep going saying, this is reminding me so much of 2005 when the dollar covered up its pimples and posed for GQ, only to see the pimples pop through the makeup by year-end....

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 9:00 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, China, Gold, Euro, Japan, Norway, Home Prices

US consumers come to the rescue of the dollar...

* US consumers come to the rescue of the $... * European data comes in negative... * Currencies down under take a hit... * Goldman suggests investments in Norway... ** US consumers come to the rescue of the dollar... Good day... The dollar bulls took control of the currency markets yesterday after the US consumer confidence numbers looked slightly less awful than expected. The better than expected confidence number caused the dollar to jump over one and a half cents vs. the Euro and close to 1% vs. the NZD$. The gain by the US$ was the biggest one day move in almost two months. Chuck, who is enjoying a much deserved break this week, sent me his thoughts on this dramatic move by the dollar: "It sure looks like the markets once again, took the bait hook, line and sinker yesterday... I mean, Consumer Confidence rises from a deep dark abyss, and the markets were singing, ding, dong the witch is dead, ding dong the wicked witch is dead. The wicked witch here is the bear and what it's done to the markets this year. Since November, stocks have lost plenty of ground, and I for one truly suspect there will be more losses in the days ahead. But... Not yesterday, and not a losing day for the dollar either! Probably the best 1 day performance I've seen in the dollar in some time......

Published Wed, Jul 07 2008 9:16 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Dollar, Consumer Confidence, New Zealand, Norway, Staycation

More Losses!

* Currency rally runs into profit taking... * Mortgage related losses continue to mount... * Taking risk... Just seems stupid right now... * Canadian Retail Sales post a gain... ** More Losses! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It was a long day of travel for yours truly, who saw two gate changes and two plane changes along with 1.5 hours of delay... I ran into a reader on the plane, that said, Hey! Aren't you Chuck Butler? I could see all the people sitting around me thinking that they should know Chuck Butler, he must be a celebrity! HA! Little did they know, it's just little Ole me, the Pfennig writer! Well... The currencies had a good day VS the dollar, as the euro was able to gain well into the 1.59 handle... Part of my presentation to the main stage crowd tomorrow (900+) is going to ask the question... Where are all those people that claimed the weak dollar trend was over last month when the Fed stated they were going to be inflation fighters? They are no-where to be found! That's where! I recall that even a big name guy at the Royal Bank of Canada, flatly stated the weak dollar trend was over... Where have all the naysayers gone? Long time passing......

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 10:11 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, Dollar, Oil, Euro, Canada, The Fed, Washington Mutual, Wachovia

Losses Keep Piling On!

* Range bound currencies... * Stocks rebound... * So, you think Oil is expensive? * Gold prices back off... ** Losses Keep Piling On! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm running late today, was up most of the night with stomach problems, and overslept this morning. This is my last day on my 4-weeks treatment, so maybe by this time next week, I'll be able to feel normal again. But, it's a Friday! And... I'll be gone the next 3-weeks! First to Vancouver, where I'll still write the Pfennig each day, but then on vacation, and on to San Francisco... I'll be back in the saddle on August 11th... Well... We had a range bound day in the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief at JP Morgan's 2nd QTR earnings... JP Morgan beat the estimates, but the thing I don't get is why there was dancing in the streets when those earnings were 53% below those a year ago. So, good for them for beating the estimates, but 53% below last year, I would certainly think it would have raised a few eyebrows... In fact, JP Morgan head man, Jamie Dimon said, "Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."...

Published Fri, Jul 07 2008 9:12 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Oil, Gold, Trichet, Citigroup, Eurozone

Credit Woes Sink The Dollar!

* No Bailout for Freddie and Fannie... * The euro reaches a new record high! * More risk today... * Aussie hits 25-year high! ** Credit Woes Sink The Dollar! Good day... And a Tip Top Tuesday to you! I thought I would change it up there today... Well... Overnight, we've seen the euro reach a new record high VS the dollar, only to give some of that ground gained back on some weak German data. There was more news yesterday regarding the Freddie and Fannie saga, but I've grown tired of that talk, we dance now! Seriously, though, I have grown tired of all that Freddie and Fannie talk, that I'm going to go through an exercise explaining what GSE's are and then go on with life... So... The euro reached a new record high overnight of 1.6038! WOW! This was reached based on the fears that credit problems in the U.S. are going to put the kyboshes on what little economic growth we now have. But the shine on the euro was rubbed out by a very weak ZEW... German Investor Confidence as measured by the think tank, ZEW, fell to a record low this month on the surging inflation problems, and rising interest rates. So for now, the euro is back below 1.60, but hear me now and listen to me later... This ZEW will soon be in the rear view mirror, and the euro won't have that albatross around its neck as it revisits its overnight high....

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 9:37 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Currencies, Dollar, Bailout, Euro, Ben Bernanke, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Credit Crisis

Another Perfect Storm Averted!

* Paulson calms fears... For now! * The dollar gets sold again... * More risk events... * Bill Gross wants dollars! ** Another Perfect Storm Averted! Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Well... One of St. Louis' landmarks was sold this morning... One of my fave companies for a number of reasons, Anheuser Busch, was sold to InBev this morning... Just another in the line of Corporate Headquarters that will no longer reside in St. Louis... At one in the 80's, St. Louis was the 5th largest city, with Corporate Headquarters, in Western Hemisphere... I doubt we even are on the list these days... OK... Well... Friday was chock full-o-fun, and not fun for some, as U.S. Treasury Secretary, Paulson, tried to calm the markets regarding Freddie and Fannie... That may have some soothing effect in the short run, but if home prices keep falling, and mortgage backed bonds keep losing value, this problem will return to the markets......

Published Mon, Jul 07 2008 9:21 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Consumer Confidence, Canada, Eurozone, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, IndyMac

FOMC Meeting Day!

* What will the Fed do? * Going into the fryer? * Trichet tries to cool the jets... * India raises rates 50 BPS! ** FOMC Day! Good day... And a what should be "Wild" Wednesday to you! This is the day the Fed's "true" colors come through in my opinion. The markets were all fired up a couple of weeks ago, and the air in their balloon has been slowly let out up to now. But today, we'll see if their balloon get re-inflated or goes "pop"! You see, today is the day the Fed's FOMC meeting adjourns and a rate announcement along with a new bias will be the order of business at the end of the meeting. The Fed Heads normally eat their lunch, which was probably packed in brown bag consisting of a baloney sandwich (since that's what they normally spew is baloney!), some chips and ho-ho's... HAHAHAHAHA!...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rates, Trichet, The Fed, FOMC, India

Dollar's Mini-rally ends...

* Record iron ore price! * Ben Stein in the Pfennig! * Top 11 currency returns... * Mogambo on Gold... ** Dollar's Mini-rally ends... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! The dollar's mini-rally yesterday stalled overnight, and once again the dollar bulls are having to cover euro shorts they put on. Yes, they NOW believe the Fed will not come through on it's claim to be an inflation fighter, and leave rates unchanged. That will keep the positive yield differential in the euro's favor (well, it would have anyway, but it keeps it unchanged). Remember though, who called out Fed Chairman Big Ben Bernanke when he said early this month that the "falling dollar had caused an unwelcome increase in inflation, and that he was "attentive" to the problem." Hogwash, said I!...

Published Tue, Jun 06 2008 9:15 AM by Chuck Butler