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Daily Pfennig
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  • TARP Testimony Today...

    * What will Paulson say? * Dollar remains well bid... * How long for Safe Haven buyers? * G-20 Schmee 20! ** TARP Testimony Today... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I've been away for a few days to deal with something, I want to thank Chris once again for taking the conn on the Pfennig since last Thursday. He'll get it again at the end of this week and the beginning of next week, as I hope to get to Marco Island for the Wealth Masters Conference. Well... Nothing has changed since I left you last Wednesday. The awful economic data just keeps piling on, and the dollar gets bid up on safe haven purchases. We did see the Eurozone and Japan announce that they are in a recession... Chris was kind enough to leave me the following, so here's some more Chris.......
  • Falling Short On Financing...

    * Dollar wages war on euro! * TICs comes up short... * An Oil discussion... * Mexico raises interest rates... ** Falling Short On Financing... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! This week is shaping up to be much like a college fraternity pledge "hell week", as we will be as thin as a razor swim suit, with many people out... All I can ask of World Markets customers is that they be patient when calling this week, the wait could be long. OK... Friday saw some ups and downs but all-in-all a range bound day for the currencies. I'm not going to stick my foot in my mouth again and say that it looks like the euro has applied a tourniquet to the bleeding, like I did last week! I'll simply say that it held 1.47, and has added to that in the overnight trading....
  • Trade Deficit Narrows...

    * Dollar rally continues... * Be careful what you wish for! * Prime loans now in trouble... * Norges Bank to keep rates unchanged... ** Trade Deficit Narrows... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Tuesday saw more volatility in the currencies as the dollar went back in forth, but well within a trading range. The euro has melted down to the 1.49 area, where it seems to have found some breathing room. The Trade Deficit for June shrunk, but the Budget Deficit widened... Again, the fundamentals in the U.S. continue to point to recession. All this and more in today's Pfennig, so grab a cup o'java, a chair, and let's go! OK... Front and center this morning, I want to talk about the Trade Deficit, which in June showed a narrowing from $59.8 Billion to $56.8 Billion, which looks good, right? Well... As I told you in yesterday's Pfennig, you have to be careful what you wish for. This drop in the Trade Deficit pushed the dollar higher yesterday morning, and got me thinking... (I know, that could be dangerous, but stay with me here...) A stronger dollar will not play well, share toys, and keep its hands to itself, with exports... And exports have been something short of amazing with the dollar being weak. In fact, exports have accounted for the largest contribution to GDP in the past 5 quarters! (with U.S. Consumer spending drying up, this is possible!) Add to that, everyone getting goose bumps regarding a global slowdown... If the world slows down, like the dollar bulls are claiming they will, thus propping up the dollar, then U.S. exports will slow even more!...
  • Hereeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk!

    * Dollar rally continues... * Who's buying U.S. debt? * Homeowners upside down.... * U.S. data continues to be bad! ** Hereeeeeee's Baaaaaacccckkkkk! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! I'm Baaaaaaaaaccccckkkk! Well, actually, I made it to the office yesterday morning, after flying all night from San Francisco (with a stop in Dallas)... I told the crew ahead of time I didn't want to hear anything about how I looked... And they obliged, but I could see that they were giggling inside! I'm still worn out, but Hey! I got back yesterday, to find out I get to go back out on the road all next week... Geez Louise, somebody get me a private plane! HA! Well... The joke on the desk used to be that "When Chuck was gone, the currencies rallied"... That certainly wasn't the case with this past absence! I had pre-written a large part of what I was going to say in yesterday's Pfennig, before I was not able to connect, flying in a big airliner....
  • A Perfect Storm...

    * The euro runs into a summer storm... * Plosser wants higher rates... Yeah, right! * Aussie dollar strength to return... * Canadian inflation pops higher than expected! ** A Perfect Storm... Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! A great day yesterday, as I was able to meet up with old friends, readers, and well wishers... So many people were just glad to see me here! I told them it was good to be seen! Looks like the oil rigs dodged a bullet with Dolly in the Gulf Coast, and that's a good thing! But Dolly will still hit South Padre Island today, please keep that in your thoughts today... Well... You know how I explained on a couple of occasions in the past couple of weeks, a Perfect Storm for the dollar? Well, those never materialized due to a number of reasons... Yesterday, we finally got that Perfect Storm, but it wasn't for the dollar... You know those Mid-Western summer storms, when in the middle of the day, it turns pitch-black, and the trees all begin bowing from the wind, and then the rain comes down hard? Well, that's much like what happened yesterday with the euro... Here's the skinny......
  • A Big Data Week!

    * Some healing in the currencies... * U of Mich. Confidence falls... * Unloading Treasuries? * Turning the tables in N.Z.?...
  • The Dollar Rallies!

    * All Major currencies lose ground... * Debasing the dollar... * Deficits DO Matter! * New Homes Sales are atrocious!...
  • Eurozone Inflation Bumps Higher...

    * The euro nears an all-time high! * Deficits DO matter! * Retail Sales not so sweet! * Oil hits $114!...