Browse by Tags

* Dollar rebounds... * Big Ben's imagination... * More Risk Events... * Inflation lights a fire under the loonie... ** A Huge Data Week... Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! A weekend that was supposed to be filled with rain, was nothing but sunshine, and beautiful days. For once, I didn't make fun of the weather people that make the forecasts! But, as always, it was too darn short! The alarm went off this morning, and for a minute I thought, "to heck with this, I'm going back to sleep!" But, then as always, I got up to start the day. Well... Recall on Friday, the currencies had rallied very strongly on Thursday, and it looked like a reversal of the month-long dollar rally could be at hand... I had this to say in Friday's Pfennig: "But today is a new day folks... And what happened yesterday is now history... The attitudes could change in a NY minute, and the dollar be back in favor. This is what I'm talking about when I say things are less secure. Wishy-Washy market sentiment leads to very volatile markets, and that's what we saw yesterday... Now, let's move on to today, and see what Bullwinkle has up his sleeve. Hey Rocky, wanna watch me pull a rabbit out of my hat?"...

* Strange trading days... * U.K. Retail Sales surprise.... * Norway's GDP prints strong! * A CDO lesson... ** Fannie and Freddie Back In The News... Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Don't know why... I just felt like it should be a Tub Thumpin' Thursday! I hit the wall yesterday, as I went home, and fell asleep at 3 o'clock, and didn't wake up till night time! Watched a few innings of my beloved Cardinals, wanted desperately to stay up and watch the May-Walsh beach volleyball game, but went right back to bed! So... I should be rested, eh? One would think so, but with the treatments I take, they just simply wipe me out! But... Hey! I always said that sleep was the greatest thing... I just get to enjoy more of it, right? OK... Another day of strange trading... As I signed off yesterday, the euro had given up it's previous day's gains, but found some terra firma at 1.47 and then rallied in the afternoon... If you guess right, as I have not done so this week, you can catch a great price to sell, and buy, all in the same day!...

* Gold is oversold... * Dollar index is overbought... * RBA to cut rates... * More tears to shed in housing... ** German Investor Confidence Rises! Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Whew! A long day yesterday for me and the kids on the trading desk. I suspect today will be cut from the same cloth. We have quite a few currency investors panicking and bailing on their plan to diversify. It's not a One-Way street folks... No one ever said it would be! But those that held on to their positions during the dollar rally of 2005, were rewarded, as I believe they will this time too... But then, I could be wrong......

* Dollar wages war on euro! * Pulling the wool over our eyes... * A Gold discussion... * 4-weeks of selling renminbi... ** Inflation & Jobless Rate Soars! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! It's been 3 weeks since I last started a Friday with that note. I hit every red light this morning on my way to work, which led me to think aloud in the parking lot, that this isn't going to be a Fantastico Friday... And when I turned on the currency screens, after reaching my desk, I could see why I thought those negative thoughts... It's getting ugly... Yesterday, I was busy with my head down working on something, when Chris Gaffney yelled across the trading desk, "Hey, Chuck, what happened to the euro?" I looked up to see the euro had lost 1-cent in a matter of 20 minutes... But that's not the end... This morning, the euro has given up another 1-cent, and now trades with a 1.47 handle. Just what the heck is going on here?...

* Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....

* Range bound currencies... * Stocks rebound... * So, you think Oil is expensive? * Gold prices back off... ** Losses Keep Piling On! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I'm running late today, was up most of the night with stomach problems, and overslept this morning. This is my last day on my 4-weeks treatment, so maybe by this time next week, I'll be able to feel normal again. But, it's a Friday! And... I'll be gone the next 3-weeks! First to Vancouver, where I'll still write the Pfennig each day, but then on vacation, and on to San Francisco... I'll be back in the saddle on August 11th... Well... We had a range bound day in the currencies yesterday, with a bias to buy dollars, as the markets breathed a sigh of relief at JP Morgan's 2nd QTR earnings... JP Morgan beat the estimates, but the thing I don't get is why there was dancing in the streets when those earnings were 53% below those a year ago. So, good for them for beating the estimates, but 53% below last year, I would certainly think it would have raised a few eyebrows... In fact, JP Morgan head man, Jamie Dimon said, "Our expectation is for the economic environment to continue to be weak -- and to likely get weaker -- and for the capital markets to remain under stress. We remain conscious that since substantial risks still remain on our balance sheet, these factors will likely affect our business for the remainder of the year or longer."...

* Euro trading pattern... * Sterling backs off... * Data cupboard gets restocked... * Rupees disappoint... **What's Up With The Loonie? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! I hit all my traffic lights on green this morning, so it's going to be a "good day"! Funny how little things like that put a smile on my face... OK... Another day of watching the euro rise up to 1.5815 and then see it get sold back below the 1.58 figure when the NY boys arrive at their desks. The pattern for the first two days this week has seen that selling in the morning, and then a slow rise in the afternoon, and then back over 1.58 in the overnight markets. That's where we are again this morning......