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Fed not as hawkish as expected...

* Fed not as hawkish as expected... * Markets now turn to ECB and BOE... * Canadian dollar slides... * Aussie hit by 1-2 punch.. ** Fed not as hawkish as expected... Good day...I want to start off today's Pfennig by apologizing for those of you who were waiting to receive their Pfennig yesterday. I sent it off at the normal time, but we had some problems with the program which sends it out, so it was delayed in getting delivered. You can always view the current Pfennig at www.dailypfennig.com where we post it first thing in the morning. That website also has archived versions of past pfennigs for your reading pleasure! They tell me the problem has been fixed, so you should get this pfennig right on time. The dollar drifted higher throughout most of the day yesterday as the markets prepared for the FOMC rate announcement. The sentiment driving the dollar higher was that the Fed would sound much more hawkish in order to keep an overall consensus among the FOMC members. Dollar bulls were expecting a signal from Bernanke that an increase in interest rates would be just around the corner. These higher interest rate expectations encouraged traders to take the dollar index back up to just under 74, a level we haven't seen in almost two months....

Published Wed, Aug 08 2008 10:12 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Oil, Inflation, Commodities, Gold, European Central Bank, Canada, Bank of England, Interest Rates, The Fed, FOMC

Dollar swings a mighty hammer...

* Dollar swings a mighty hammer... * FOMC expected to sound more hawkish... * Euro Opportunity currencies rally... * RAB leaves rates unchanged, but AUD$ falls... ** Dollar swings a mighty hammer... Good day...The dollar rallied again yesterday, and shot up even more overnight as the markets prepare for the rate announcement from the Fed. Falling oil prices helped propel the greenback higher, as oil fell below $120 a barrel for the first time since May. This latest move puts the dollar index close to 74, the point at which the last dollar correction ended back in mid June. The technical guys are all waiting to see if the index can break through 74.31, a sign that further strength is possible. But I don't pretend to be a technical analyst and would much rather look at the economic fundamentals to figure the direction of the dollar....

Published Tue, Aug 08 2008 9:17 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Dollar, Euro, Swiss franc, Interest Rates, FOMC, Consumer Debt, Credit Crisis

A week of interest rate decisions...

* A week of interest rate decisions... * Pound Sterling drops again... * Brazil and Mexico continue to dominate... * Gold and Silver fall... ** A week of interest rate decisions... Good day...The dollar stayed in the pretty tight range it has established over the weekend, gaining some strength over the weekend after losing some ground on Friday. Should be an exciting week as it is 'Interest Rate Decision' week as a number of central banks will be announcing their new rates. I think the rate announcements will reinforce my feelings that the world's economies are heading down divergent paths, with some economies heading down a recessionary path while others maintaining good growth rates. As expected, the US unemployment rose to the highest level in more than four years as employers cut jobs again in July. But the decrease in payrolls was slightly less than forecast, so some were saying 'it isn't as bad as we thought'....

Published Mon, Aug 08 2008 10:24 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: British Pound, Brazilian Real, Inflation, Silver, Gold, Interest Rates, The Fed, Peso

Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation?

* A bounce in the euro overnight... * Iran tests long range missiles... * Japan's Machine Orders soar! * Is Big Ben giving us a hint? ** Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Things settled down a bit yesterday, with the rumors of bailout for Fannie and Freddie Macs fading, and some awful Housing data being swept under the rug. The dollar gained back the ground it had lost to the euro the previous day, and Japan printed a very strong Machine Orders report... And now Iran tests long range missiles... All that and more as we begin our Wednesday... OK, front and center this morning... The Housing data from yesterday. Since the media decided to sweep this under the rug, I thought I would make certain that at least Pfennig Readers were aware of the rot on the Housing vine. The index of Pending Home resales fell -4.7% in April, a much larger decline than the "experts" forecast. I think what you're seeing here is simply that would be buyers are holding off as they expect further declines in prices.....

Published Wed, Jul 07 2008 9:53 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Oil, Inflation, Deflation, Euro, Ben Bernanke, Interest Rates, Japan, G8, John Mauldin, Iran

"Somewhat Receded"?

* Fed leaves rates unchanged... * A dovish tone to the Fed... * Dollar Bulls run for the hills! * Norway raises rates... ** "Somewhat Receded"? Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! Well... If you are a non-dollar owner, you might want to quickly go to the currency round-up to check on your currency / currencies... The Fed left rates unchanged and were quite dovish in their statement, and the dollar has been sent to the woodshed... Welcome back! Front and Center this morning, we have a currency rally going on, with the euro leading the dogs off the porch to chase the dollar down the street. The single unit has pushed past the 1.57 handle this morning, and the high yielders of Aussie, kiwi, and Brazil are all dancing in the streets because their positive rate differentials are even more in the face of traders now....

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 10:39 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Gold, New Zealand, Interest Rates, The Fed, Norway, Renminbi

FOMC Meeting Day!

* What will the Fed do? * Going into the fryer? * Trichet tries to cool the jets... * India raises rates 50 BPS! ** FOMC Day! Good day... And a what should be "Wild" Wednesday to you! This is the day the Fed's "true" colors come through in my opinion. The markets were all fired up a couple of weeks ago, and the air in their balloon has been slowly let out up to now. But today, we'll see if their balloon get re-inflated or goes "pop"! You see, today is the day the Fed's FOMC meeting adjourns and a rate announcement along with a new bias will be the order of business at the end of the meeting. The Fed Heads normally eat their lunch, which was probably packed in brown bag consisting of a baloney sandwich (since that's what they normally spew is baloney!), some chips and ho-ho's... HAHAHAHAHA!...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Currencies, Inflation, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rates, Trichet, The Fed, FOMC, India

When Will The Fed Be Called Out?

* More dollar strength... * Conspiracy theories... * BOC leaves rates unchanged... * A euro chart discussion... **Front and Center this morning, the dollar continued to hold the advantage over the euro and other currencies yesterday and in the overnight market... The euro did attempt to rally overnight, but that move was thwarted, as an European Central Bank (ECB) member, Stark, threw cold water on the rally. Stark, said that "the markets have understood the Governing Council's signal", which meant the markets understood that the ECB was going to raise rates in July... But then the cold water came flying out of the bucket as Stark then said, "However, we are not talking about a series of rate increases."...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:41 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, The Fed, Bank of Canada

Jawboning The Dollar Higher...

* More bias to buy dollars... * Printing money... * Kiwi gets hit hard! * Rate announcements today......

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 9:03 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Inflation, Kiwi, Consumer Confidence, Ben Bernanke, Bank of England, Interest Rates, The Fed

The Fed Follows Through...

* Fed follows through... * GDP holds positive... * BOJ keeps rates unchanged... * Gold continues to drop......

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:42 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Gold, Interest Rates, The Fed, GDP, FOMC, Bank of Japan

FOMC Day...

* More dollar strength... * U.S. data looking bad... * Where are my rose colored glasses? * A note on Gold......

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 10:39 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Dollar, Gold, Consumer Confidence, Interest Rates, FOMC, Home Prices

A Transparent Fed?

* The dollar swings the hammer again... * Begin the emptying of the data cupboard! * Regurgitating stories on the euro... * The Mogambo on a Tuesday!...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:14 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Trade Deficit, Dollar, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, The Fed, Mogambo

The Euro Hits 1.60!

* Noyer rains on the euro's parade... * Aussie hits a 24-year high! * Bank of Canada cuts 50 BPS! * George F. Will speaks!...

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 9:46 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Australia, Inflation, Home Sales, Euro, Interest Rates, Bank of Canada, George F. Will

More Hawkish ECB Talk!

* Euro pushes the 1.60 envelope... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Norges Bank to hike rates tomorrow? * Asians get the inflation memo!...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:27 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Inflation, ECB, Euro, European Central Bank, Interest Rates, Bank of Canada, Norges Bank

Housing Starts Still Collapsing!

* Nearing an all-time drop in Housing... * Mishkin says rates can go lower... * Gold continues to recover... * Oil hits $115!...

Published Thu, Apr 04 2008 9:26 AM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Oil, Gold, Home Sales, Canada, Interest Rates

Another Large Rate Cut From The Fed...

* Are there more rate cuts coming? * Yen and Swiss kicking sand... * Emerging Markets High Yielders fall... * Buying Opportunities in Gold and Silver?...

Published Wed, Mar 03 2008 1:57 PM by Chuck Butler

Filed under: Commodities, Silver, Gold, Yen, Swiss franc, Interest Rates, The Fed

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