Posted
Jul 14 2008, 10:05 AM
by
Vinny Catalano, CFA
excerpts from this week’s
report:
Model Growth Portfolio
(MGP)
“A strong relative
performance recovery due to the aforementioned strong underweight in Energy and
moderate underweight in Financials along with the absolute positive performance
in the Smid growth positions lifted the year to date results to a positive 257
basis points…”
Model Growth Portfolio
(MGP) Re-balancing
“One minor portfolio change
and one reclassification are being recommended...”
ETF Market Monitor
Econ. Sectors &
Industries: Financials were hammered
while Healthcare and domestic Consumer Staples and Utilities excelled. Steel
also rebounded strongly.
Size & Styles: The Smids (including Micro Cap) and Dow Transports painted
a much brighter picture than the S&P 500.
Global: Many global markets tracked the dismal US. However,
China, Malaysia, and Singapore did not.
Other: Commodities did not follow Gold’s good performance.
Expected Return
Valuation Model
“A justifiable argument can
be made to raise the risk adjustment factor (concurrently lowering the
projected P/E ranges) as the real risk of declining earnings occurring next
year are now being heard with greater intensity. The stagflation lite scenario.
I will hold back on making this change for the moment pending the US
government’s action…”
Moving Averages
Scorecard
“Further deterioration
pushing the total mega trend number to its lowest reading thus far. The one
bright spot is the improving near term trend in China…”
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