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September 2008 Investment Strategy

Richard Schwartz 's PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service Seventeenth Consecutive Year of Publication ; Letter #1; September 18 th , 1990 Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz...

Published Tue, Sep 09 2008 8:27 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence, Investing Strategies, Personal Remarks, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Weekly Letter, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Investment Themes, Trends, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Stock Trader's Almanac, Economic Common Sense, Bear Market Rally, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Democracy, Capitalism, Big Picture, Stock Market Media, Bear Markets, Economics, Mr. Market, Investor Psychology, Crude Oil, Foreign Oil Dependency, Change, Living Standards, Big Picture View, CNBC, Summer Rally
Papa Bear Market Downside Target

THE STOCK MARKET Hope camouflaging a water torture, drip-by-drip decline is one way of describing today’s stock market. The big problem with all the bottom calling a few months back by Bob Doll, BlackRock’s “Trillion Dollar Man”...

Published Mon, Aug 08 2008 2:16 PM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Historical Perspectve, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Jim Rogers, George Soros, Mama Bears, Papa Bears, 1974, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Big Picture, S&P 500, Dow Industrials, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, 1932, 1929, Charts, Big Picture View, MAD MONEY, IBD, Bob Doll, Comstock Funds, Robert Prechter, heating bills, Papa Bear Mama Bear
Stock Market Strategy: 6:30 am EST, Thursday, July 17th, 2008

STRATEGY VIEW . This morning please let me warn a bit further about using inverse vehicles. Appropriate because yesterday’s big rally must have gotten everyone’s attention, longs and shorts alike, but especially those now using these shorting...

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:55 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, ETFs, Investing Strategies, Hedging, Hedge, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Portfolio Strategy, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, Papa Bears, The Big Picture, The Principle of Relative Strength, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, S&P 500, Dow Industrials, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Financial Discipline, ProFunds, Inverse Funds, Fidelity Selects, Rydex, Big Picture View, Model Portfolios, Short ETFs, Shorts, Longs
Two Technicals: 1. Why No Capitulation; 2. How Inflation Returns

TECHNICAL VIEW . The Principle of History. Two historical technical observations today: 1. Capitulation: Where the Heck is It? CNBC keeps interviewing floor traders and reporting from the New York Stock Exchange that everyone there is anxiously looking...

Published Wed, Jul 07 2008 11:40 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Commodities, Inflation, Keys to the Market, Update On The Stock Market, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market, Portfolio Strategy, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, The Principle of History, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Trends, Trend Reversals, Shake Outs, Energy, Credit Crisis, Economic Trends, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Economics, Investor Psychology, Charts, Big Picture View, CNBC, Paul Volker, NYSE, Bank Panic of 1907
Respect The Bear But Nibble On Energy Savers

MORE RECOMMENDATIONS ON MY NEW ENERGY SAVERS THEME On Friday, June 13 th , I began a new investment theme, what I called the Energy Savings (Savers) Theme . Essentially a new theme is when some macro force is seen as boosting a whole group of companies...

Published Tue, Jul 07 2008 8:52 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Clean Energy, Trading, Green Energy, Green Investing, Alternative Energy, US Economy, Charting, The Principle of Primary Trend, Portfolio Strategy, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, The Big Picture, Investment Themes, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, The Principle of Understanding Value, Energy Conservation, Battery Technology, Economic Common Sense, Stock Market, Energy, CPST, CHP, BCON, Power Conversion, WGOV, Energy Savings, Energy Controls, MXWL, COMV, Alternative Clean Green, ITRI, ENOC, BMI, Economic Trends, Chart Patterns, Charts, Bullish on America, Natural Gas, Foreign Oil Dependency, Lifestyle, AMSC, ALTI
Portfolio Strategy: Monday, July 14th, 2008

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY This year’s mid-March to mid-May bear market rally was the first rally versus the new primary bear market downtrend. Usually the first rally is the best rally (just like the first loss is the best loss) because many investors...

Published Mon, Jul 07 2008 8:34 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Keys to the Market, Market Bottoms, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, Weekly Letter, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Trend Reversals, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Stearns, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Ben Bernanke, Dow Industrials, Credit Crunch, Credit Crisis, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Mr. Market
Sample Monday Overview Letter

Richard Schwartz 's PRINCIPLES OF THE STOCK MARKET A learning, teaching, always evolving stock market letter and advisory service Seventeenth Consecutive Year of Publication ; Letter #1; September 18 th , 1990 Post Office Box 1236 · New Paltz...

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 9:55 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Gold, (GLD), Investing Strategies, US Economy, Personal Remarks, Market Bottoms, The Principle of Primary Trend, Global Investing, Update On The Stock Market, Weekly Letter, Bubbles, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, Jim Rogers, George Soros, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, The Big Picture, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Recession, Trends, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Globalization, Trend Reversals, 1974, 1973, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, History, Gold View, Bear Market Rallies, Global View, Global Economy, Stock Market, US Presidential Election, Capitalism, Big Picture, Energy, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Mr. Market, Investor Psychology, Crude Oil, 1932, 1929, Bullish on America, Inverse Funds, Energy Sevice
Is This Your Portfolio?

WHERE YOU SHOULD STAND TODAY. The Ideal Portfolio (another Schwartz View ). Yep, let me offer up one man’s view of what the ideal portfolio should be today and why: · Very minimal exposure to the stock market! This major, modern day margin...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 10:14 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, ETFs, Trading, Green Energy, China View, Gold, (GLD), Commodities, Investing Strategies, Hedging, Green Investing, (HOKU), (PLUG), (CHCHF), Alternative Energy, Soft Commodities, The Principle of Primary Trend, Global Investing, Update On The Stock Market, US Treasuries, Commodity Bull Market, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Jim Rogers, Papa Bears, Fixed Income, Investment Themes, Agricultural Commodities, Foreign Currencies, The Principle of Proper Money Management, The Principle of Understanding Value, Energy Conservation, Solar, Battery Technology, Economic Common Sense, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, OPEC, Gold View, GLD, SPDR Gold Trust, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Commodity Inflation, Big Picture, Energy, CPST, FSLR, BCON, WGOV, Energy Savings, COMV, Alternative Clean Green, ITRI, Bear Markets, Mr. Market, 1932, 1929, ProFunds, Inverse Funds, Fidelity Selects, Energy Sevice, Rydex
Dow 12,000 Now A Memory

Thursday, June 26 th , 2008: Written 6:30 a.m. EST Going to find our “way to San Jose ” next week, on vacation, so I’m been auditioning books for the plane rides. One coming along is Hamish McRae’s THE WORLD IN 2020 . I previewed...

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 8:45 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Dowtrend Channels, Charting, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Distribution, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Extended Bear Markets, Mama Bears, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Reflex Rally, Round Numbers, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Dow Industrials, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, Charts, Lower Highs & Lower Lows, 000, Dow 12, Round Number
Top of Bear Market Rally? Protect Yourselves!

Written Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 THE STOCK MARKET Briefly, the stock market pulled back sharply last week. Obviously this pullback may be about over and may be just a normal “shake out” on the way to higher prices. While that could be true...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 10:15 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Shorting, Technical View, Investing Strategies, Hedging, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Stock Market Weekly, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Portfolio Strategy, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, Tops, Papa Bears, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, The Principle of Proper Money Management, MACD, Trend Reversals, 4-Day Corollary Rule, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Stearns, Discounting Mechanism, Shake Outs, Reflex Rally
Technicals Suggest, Not Guarantee, Rally Is Over.

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Written Friday, May 23rd, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Stocks normally bounce after two or three days of sharp declines. And the size and cope of a bounce is telling. So yesterday’s “bounce” proved disappointing. For...

Published Fri, May 05 2008 9:36 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, Tops, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Trading Rules, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 4-Day Corollary Rule, Trader Vic, Vic Sperandeo, Sequences, Moving Averages, Stock Trader's Almanac, Breadth, Trading Volume, Distribution Days, Investor's Business Daily
1973-1974 Redux

The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:09 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Stagflation, Inflation, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Market Corrections, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 1974, 1973
Odds Still Favor Deep Recession

THE BIG PICTURE & THE ECONOMY Today’s Big Picture view comes down to whether the US economy is going into a severe, long lasting recession or not. My belief remains that we are, that’s where today’s slow-motion economic slowdown...

Published Mon, May 05 2008 8:59 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Commodities, Soft Commodities, US Economy, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Global Investing, Stock Market Weekly, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market,