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The Return of Muddle Through The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
09-28-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, The Fed, China, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Chinese Yuan, Euro, Housing Bubble, Credit Crisis, Muddle Through
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The Fugu Ultimatum In the early fall of 1998, I remember being on a flight to Bermuda from New York. I was upgraded and sat next to a very distinguished looking gentleman. He was going to a conference about re-insurance and I was going to speak at a large hedge fund conference. We hit it off, and began...
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The Birth/Death Ratio Is the economy slowing down or is it getting ready to go on a new tear? Judging by the run-up in the Dow, the answer is a major turnaround for the economy in the last half of the year, from the close-to-recession numbers of the first quarter. So, what has happened to my forecast...
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Introduction This week in a very special Outside the Box we have an investment outlook tour de force. My friend and South African business partner Dr. Prieur du Plessis gathered a group of some of the more interesting investment managers in the industry, along with your humble analyst, and let us have...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
07-02-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: Housing, China, Liquidity, Barry Ritholz, Dr. Prieur du Plessis, John Mauldin, Knights of the Round Table, The Dollar, Yen Carry Trade, Interest Rates, David Fuller
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Introduction This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge . The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with...
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Introduction Be careful for what you wish, because you may get it, and sometimes as H. L. Mencken wrote, you get it good and hard. The collective brain deficit trust, otherwise known as the US Congress, wish for the Chinese to revalue their currency upwards. Today we look at why they may indeed get their...
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Introduction This week in a Special Outside the Box we look at the discussion of alternative energy sources, specifically, ethanol derived from corn or sugarcane. The Stratfor piece discusses the economic implications of ethanol usage; geopolitical ramifications in terms of how current oil producers...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
06-07-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: George Friedman, Oil, China, Stratfor, John Mauldin, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, Russia, Chile, OPEC, Ethanol
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Introduction This week we look at the US mortgage market to see what fallout there is from the subprime mortgage woes. It is both less of a problem and/or more of a problem, depending on your perspective, as I predicted it would be last year. Score one for your analyst, which said score is needed as...
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Introduction As the forth largest economy in the world, the rapid growth of Communist China' military, and economic prominence has both perplexed and intrigued the United States. Stratfor analyst Rodger Baker addresses the two primary economic concerns troubling Washington and Wall Street alike:...
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Introduction Today's Outside the Box is a very interesting piece written by Louis-Vincent Gave and the team at GaveKal entitled "Part 2: So What Should We Worry About?" His article is a follow up to an earlier one that he wrote on why he, and the rest of the GaveKal team, had been bullish...
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Introduction I probably get as many questions about gold as I do any subject. The fascination with the yellow metal permeates all levels of investors, and opinions can be quite strong. But few are more informed than those of good friend and trader extraordinaire, Greg Weldon. Greg has written a new book...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-26-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: China, Credit, Japan, Greg Weldon, Yield Curve, John Mauldin, U.S. Dollar, Investing Strategies, Russia, Global Economy, Macro-Markets, Gold
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Introduction s week we look at the possible latest entry into the hedge fund world, The People's Republic of China; review the cockroach principle of subprime mortgages; and investigate the possibility of whether we need more derivatives and not less than the $283 trillion or so we now have. It's...
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Introduction With Tuesday's market correction being the single biggest decline in the U.S. markets since 9/11, all eyes are focused on figuring out what exactly happened as well as what is going to happen next. This week's Special Edition of Outside the Box will feature a unique perspective on...
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Introduction Today's special edition Outside the Box covers the looming political concerns of China in the new year. Leading China expert at Stratfor, Rodger Baker, has written an excellent analysis on the issues faced by the current and future leadership of the country, as well as the potential...
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Introduction With a new year just weeks away, investors are weighing expectations and asking questions about what lies ahead. Each year presents its own set of opportunities and challenges, especially in are ever-increasing global economy. Today's "Outside the Box" features a letter by...