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Longtime readers know how much I respect and rely on the Gavekal group for thought-provoking research. They have a truly unique organization, one in which even junior analysts can question conventional wisdom and ask uncomfortable questions. Moreover, they aren’t afraid to let the world (or at...
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“The one thing I know for sure about China is, I will never know China. It's too big, too old, too diverse, too deep. There's simply not enough time.” – Anthony Bourdain, Parts Unknown Much of the world is focused on what is happening in Greece and Europe. A lot of people are...
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For the last four years, I have been highlighting the idea that when Beijing floats the renminbi, the currency may go down, not up, which is the exact opposite of what those who accuse China of currency manipulation believe would happen. I had this very argument with Lindsey Graham two weeks ago at a...
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Seven Significant Events for the Next Five Years Sayonara or Pour Me Some More Sake Europe: A Ticking Time Bomb China Enters a 12-Step Program for Debtaholics Cincinnati, the Cayman Islands, Zurich, and Florida It is the time of the year for forecasts; but rather than do an annual forecast, which is...
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Transformation or Bust, China Version Becoming a Developed Economy The Four Eras of Chinese Growth & Development Mini-Stimulus & Third Plenum Progress Report A Few Final Thoughts Montana, San Antonio, DC, Barefoot, and Boston China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even...
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Can Central Planners Revive China’s Economic Miracle? Like Every Other Investment-Driven Growth “Miracle” Which Way to Sustainable Growth? What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Cross the River By Feeling the Stones A Final Special Note Trequanda, Rome, Nantucket, New York, and Maine For years...
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More Questions Than Answers Read the Tea Leaves Carefully & Expect Miscues Pulling Back the Bamboo Curtain China Beige Book, Regional Overview China Beige Book, Research Highlights Growth Is Slowing But Not Collapsing (So Far…) Trequanda, Nantucket, New York, and Maine I am writing this introductory...
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The Lion in the Grass Black Swan or Hidden Lion? The Lions in Europe Hidden Tigers in China Lions in the US Stock Market? The Bug That Roared South Africa, Amsterdam, Brussels, Geneva, and San Diego “In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but...
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A Front-Row Seat The Bubble That Is China China’s Minsky Moment? The Bigger They Come… Cafayate, South Africa, New York, Europe, and San Diego In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China....
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The US Trade Deficit Turns Positive China Moves to Float Its Currency Transformational Technologies Tucson, the Barefoot Ranch, and New York I get the question all the time: when will the Chinese renminbi (RMB) replace the US dollar as the major world reserve currency? The assumption behind such questions...
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All weekend long and this morning as I wake up in Monaco, the number of disparate publications screaming at me about problems in China is just overwhelming. Then I get myself up early to hear a speech by the esteemed British economist Charles Dumas of Lombard Street fame, and I am confronted with even...
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On Being a Professional Worrier The Healthcare Blues China, Japan, and a Few Rocks Stupid Sequestrations Whiteboard Fun Argentina, Cambodia, Singapore, Humiliation, and Homeless It has been some time since we peeked into my worry closet. A few questions this weekend prompted me to think about things...
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There are plenty of forecasts out there, but today I send you one you can trust. Stratfor, a geopolitical analysis company, has one of the most rigorous methodologies out there, and their forecasts provide excellent insight into the outcome of world events in the coming quarter. Europe, Syria, and China...
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There are political sides in America...and then there are political sides in the communist state of China. Here, it's a matter of the right and the left. In China, it's a matter of private enterprise and strong foreign investment versus highly centralized and debt-heavy state enterprise. According...
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My friends at GaveKal are uniquely positioned to help us think about where we have been in the past decade and where we are going in the next one. Their perch in Hong Kong lets them keep their fingers on China’s pulse, but they also have profound roots in Europe – the Gave family is French...