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Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word If Loans Are So Cheap, Why Don't They Sell? Deflation and Helicopters: Time for a Review Commercial Property Loans Start to Haunt the Banks Warren Makes a Bet Thanksgiving, Moving, and New Orleans Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
11-21-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Ben Bernanke, Consumer Price Index, Credit, Warren Buffet, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Deflation, Deleveraging, Commercial Property, Goldman Sachs
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In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic and financial chaos. In it, Mr. El-Erian describes...
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Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the Wall Street Journal (and produced for subscribers...
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Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
11-10-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Hedge Funds, Recession, The Dollar, Niels Jensen, Credit Default Swaps, Deleveraging, Absolute Return Partners, Yen, Europe, European Banks, Emerging Economies, Iceland
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My conversation with Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist includes a recession call, thoughts on the lasting consequences of the credit crisis (most notably deleveraging), and sector weightings. The length of the interview is 12 minutes 45 seconds. Click here to play this audio clip * To...
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In his award-wining book, “When Markets Collide”, incoming PIMCO CEO, Mohammed El-Erian makes the following statement: “…in contrast to past episodes of US economic slowdowns, emerging economies have two distinct secular forces going for them; and these should prove sufficient...
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As noted previously, stocks, having partially recovered from their deep oversold condition, are not the epicenter of the real economy impact of the credit crisis. The credit markets are. And in this regard, as lovely as the big oversold bounce in equities may have been and as astute as any investor might...
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If you are looking for a reason why stocks are plunging, here's one major reason. Today, at 10:30 AM and then again at 2 PM (both eastern time) announcements re settlement of the massive Lehman Bros. credit default swaps will occur. According to one trading desk source of mine, the equity markets...
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The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen to the 20 minute interview, click here . Note...
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Rules Matter. If the NFL changes its rules of play, does that not have an effect on the game? So, why would a rule change by the FASB or the SEC or a law by Congress not have the same game changing effect? When the FASB said that illiquid and opaque assets should be valued at their last sale (or whatever...
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commentary from this week’s “Sectors and Styles Strategy Report”*: Sunday evening’s US Treasury and Fed actions may seem bold to some. I beg to differ. Here are a few thoughts for your consideration: A recent report from respected consultancy Bridgewater Associates upped the ante...
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“She’s real fine my 409” 409 Beach Boys When the price of gas in the US hit $4.09 a gallon, the song that many consumers began singing was decidedly out of tune from the one the Beach Boys sang many decades ago. Back in the day, 409 had a different, simpler meaning. Summertime, hot...
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There is little doubt that many counterbalancing forces are at work in today’s equity markets. The bulls argue that March 17 (“Inflection Day” – see prior blog postings) was the turning point for the longer-term bull market correction that began in earnest last October. The worst...
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Recently, economic bulls were cheered by the news that earnings for the S&P 500 ex Financials rose a solid 11.8% in the first quarter of this year. Unfortunately, what the economic bulls seem to have ignored is the fact that once you drill down beneath the stratosphere of large cap issues you find...
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It could be argued that the recent rise in the medium and longer term US Treasury rates have something to do with concerns re inflation. It also could just as easily be argued that a major part of the rise is due to a lessening of the fear factor related to the credit crisis and an associated narrowing...