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The Big Three have a new customer, and it isn't you. As Detroit's former heavyweights fight for a slice of a $25 billion bailout package, more than humble pie is being eaten. If the automakers fail and take their companies into bankruptcy, Michigan as we know it ceases to exist economically....
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With the election of a new US President, everyone is focused on the "First 100 Days." How Obama transitions into the presidency impacts not just the U.S. but the entire global system. What happens to U.S. relations with Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan? What's going to happen at Treasury and...
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Really hear what I'm about to tell you. The center of gravity of the world economic system has moved from New York to Washington. Let me illustrate what I mean so you understand just how profound this is. Banks used to compete against banks. US carmakers competed against each other and the Japanese...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Middle East, George Friedman, Stratfor, Geopolitics, Russia, Foreign Policy, Global Economy, Africa, Strategic Forecasting, Latin America, Europe, Emerging Economies, East Asia, South Asia
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Dear Friends: Exhale for a moment, forget your losses for the time being, and try to appreciate the fact that you're living through the single most important development in global finance since Bretton Woods. This is a "tell the grandkids about it" moment, when governments all around the...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-16-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, George Friedman, Stratfor, Geopolitics, Recession, Globalization, Banks, Global Economy, Economy, Financial Crisis, Bank Failures, Bailout, Europe
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In times of crisis, those with psychological fortitude discover opportunities that most people miss. A friend of mine in Houston tells me of unending piles of tree limbs broken down by the hurricane. The homeowner laments his disaster; the tree trimmer and the roofer order a new Mercedes. Most of the...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-01-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: George Friedman, China, Stratfor, Iraq, Geopolitics, Politics, Russia, Foreign Policy, Iran, Al Qaeda, Afghanistan, Israel, Turkey, Latin America, Pakistan, Taliban
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It's been a hell of a few weeks, so let's start with a little much-needed levity. Two friends, a Trader and an Investor, walk up to the roulette wheel in a casino. They watch a guy hogging the table hit on his first spin. Then his second. Third, boom. Four in a row! The guy has an enormous stack...
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As we search for "the" driver of financial markets, we look at all kinds of things. We pore over government statistics, company financial statements, and analyst research, trying to find that one nugget that will give us a glimpse of the future. Today, though, we're going to turn to literature...
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"But this time it's different!!!" Any time you hear that from a financial analyst, you should run. Or better still, take the other side of his trade! If you're numerically oriented, you know that patterns tend to revert to the mean. If you're historically oriented, you know that...
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The Rise of A New Asset Class, Part 2 Unrealistic Expectations The Boomers Break the Deal A Nation of Wal-Mart Greeters Weddings and 08-08-08 Last week's letter was the first part of a speech I have been giving on what I think will be the rise of a new asset class. This week will be the second and...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
08-08-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Social Security, Baby Boomers, GDP, Economic Forecast, Geopolitics, Stratfor, Muddle Through, George Friedman, Valuations, Georgia, Soviet Union
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Kudos to my friend George Friedman and his crew at Stratfor. If you didn't see the article in this week's Barron's about Stratfor's analysis of the geopolitical risk premium built into oil prices, you missed a really good piece of work. You've probably heard Napoleon's quote that...
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For nearly 30 years, long before it was a charter member of the "Axis of Evil," Iran and the US have been locked in a hate-hate relationship. Walk down the street any Friday afternoon, and you're as likely to hear "Death to America!" as "Hi Ali, how are you?" Three decades...
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As we begin the new quarter, now is an excellent time to take stock of your basic investment thesis. Ask yourself if your allocations still reflect what you think the world is going to look like over the next several months. And as part of that process, I'm here to tell you that making "financial"...
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This week I want to share with you one of the more important tools in my arsenal for keeping up with what is going on in the world. As I've told you before, George Friedman and his team at Stratfor are my go-to guys for geopolitical intelligence. Their insights into this facet of the world are simply...
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No matter where in the world I am, in South Africa, in Europe, in La Jolla, there's one question I get asked over and over, "What about China?" And small wonder. The increasing impact of China in the last generation is just staggering and seemingly accelerating every day. If you're...
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The greyhairs among us remember the Arab Oil Embargo in 1973 and that economists of the time called it an "exogenous" shock to the system. For the first time, geopolitical events had a huge impact on world energy markets. All the financial models in the world got thrown out the window when...