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Don't have time to read the weekly newsletter? The audio version of my Frontline Thoughts are now available via Podcast on InvestorsInsight.com. Consume the feed here.

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How do You Spell Stagflation?

In This Issue: How do You Spell Stagflation? Cooking the Inflation Books Gaming the Producer Price Index Consumer Spending is Up, but then Again, It May Be Down A Two Dimensional Problem Saudi Justice New York, Toronto, Europe and Thanksgiving This week...

Published Fri, Nov 11 2007 10:16 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Stagflation, Consumer Spending, Producer Price Index, Saudi Arabia
The Return of Muddle Through

The Return of Muddle Through The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer...

Published Fri, Sep 09 2007 3:13 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, The Fed, China, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Chinese Yuan, Euro, Housing Bubble, Credit Crisis, Muddle Through
Sea Change at the Fed

Sea Change at the Fed "Of his bones are coral made: Those are pearls that were his eyes: Nothing of him that doth fade, But doth suffer a sea change Into something rich and strange" (The Tempest - Shakespeare) The term "sea change"...

Published Fri, Sep 09 2007 3:12 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Recession, Ben Bernanke, Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Housing, Subprime
The Black Swan

The Black Swan "A similar effect is taking place in economic life. I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability...

Published Fri, Sep 09 2007 9:11 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Black Swans, Credit Crisis
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates?

Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came...

Published Fri, Sep 09 2007 3:10 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Interest Rate, Employment, Ben Bernanke, Housing, Bubble, Subprime, Housing Bubble, bonds
Hope Is Not a Strategy

Introduction Investors are constantly seeking "alpha," that elusive substance which yields returns in excess of a simple market portfolio. While I am flying today to Prague, this week good friend Rob Arnott teams up with associate John West...

Published Fri, Aug 08 2007 3:09 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Fundamental Index, Alpha, bonds, Negative Alpha
The Panic of 2007

The Panic of 2007 Muddle Through or End of the World? An Alphabet Soup of Credit Turning Nuclear Waste Into Gold (and Back Again!) Mrs. Watanabe and the Hedge Fund Connection The Rating Agency Blame Game Where Do We Go From Here? Hedge Funds to the Rescue...

Published Fri, Aug 08 2007 3:08 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Hedge Fund, Interest Rate, Subprime, Mortgage, Warren Buffet, Credit Crisis, Credit Rating
The Fugu Ultimatum

The Fugu Ultimatum In the early fall of 1998, I remember being on a flight to Bermuda from New York. I was upgraded and sat next to a very distinguished looking gentleman. He was going to a conference about re-insurance and I was going to speak at a large...

Published Fri, Aug 08 2007 3:07 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, China, Hedge Funds, Subprime, The Fugu Ultimatum
The Mortgage Pig in the Python

The Mortgage Pig in the Python Inflation is Baked into the CPI Numbers The Mortgage Pig in the Python Housing Starts Look to Stop A Few Thoughts on the Recent Credit Crisis Half of All Hedge Funds Gone? Golf, Weddings, and Europe With the economy increasingly...

Published Fri, Aug 08 2007 3:06 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Fed, Hedge Fund, Inflation, Consumer Price Index, Housing, Mortgage, Credit Crisis
The Subprime Virus

The Subprime Virus The Subprime Virus 2007 Mid-Year Forecast Compete With the Pros When the Facts Change Credit? What Credit? global Warming, Maine and San Antonio As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten...

Published Fri, Jul 07 2007 3:05 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Subprime, Credit, Credit Crisis, bonds, Economic Forecast
Fun in the Subprime Summer

Fun in the Subprime Summer Hot Fun In The Summertime Collateralized Loan Obligations The Economic Outlook for Leveraged Credits The New Mickey Mouse Club Planes, Trains and Automobiles This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of...

Published Fri, Jul 07 2007 3:04 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Subprime, Mortgage, Credit Crisis, Economic Forecast
The Birth/Death Ratio

The Birth/Death Ratio Is the economy slowing down or is it getting ready to go on a new tear? Judging by the run-up in the Dow, the answer is a major turnaround for the economy in the last half of the year, from the close-to-recession numbers of the first...

Published Fri, Jul 07 2007 3:03 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, China, Inflation, Retail Sales, Birth/Death Ratio
Where is the Real Risk in the Subprime Debacle?

Introduction This week we continue to look at an alphabet soup of problems: RMBSs, CDOs, Alt-A, BBB and - a new acronym to put on your radar screen - the very useful CDS. When does an AAA rating not mean an offering is ready for prime time? What type...

Published Fri, Jul 07 2007 3:02 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, The Dollar, Risk, Subprime, Credit, Credit Crisis, Credit Default Swap, Credit Rating
$250 Billion in Subprime Losses?

$250 Billion in Subprime Losses? Is the subprime mortgage market collapsing before our eyes, or did we avoid a disaster as Bear Stearns stepped up to the plate with $3.2 billion to help its ailing funds? As we will see from the data, the problems in the...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2007 2:59 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, Housing, Subprime, Mortgage, Credit Crisis, Credit Rating, Energy
Blame It On Stability

Introduction This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge . The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2007 2:57 AM by John Mauldin

Filed under: John Mauldin, China, Bubble, Stability

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