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COMMODITY VIEW . Oil Rally Begins. Elliott Wave theory, originally produced by R. N. Elliott in the early 1900s, and now carried forward by Bob Prechter, past #1 market guru, basically says Elliott waves or complete market movements come in threes. Well, to more accurate, Elliott says movements really...
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THE FIRST INFLATION SURGE IN 25 YEARS IS OVER. So, what now? First, let me give credit when credit is due. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the Fed finally got one right. They’ve been promising us moderating inflation for a year or more and now with -30% lower crude oil prices and a big...
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TECHNICAL VIEW . The Principle of History. Two historical technical observations today: 1. Capitulation: Where the Heck is It? CNBC keeps interviewing floor traders and reporting from the New York Stock Exchange that everyone there is anxiously looking for that big bout of capitulation, selling, to end...
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WHERE YOU SHOULD STAND TODAY. The Ideal Portfolio (another Schwartz View ). Yep, let me offer up one man’s view of what the ideal portfolio should be today and why: · Very minimal exposure to the stock market! This major, modern day margin call on institutional investors is causing havoc...
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UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Written, Tuesday, May 20th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Another one of those turnaround stock market days yesterday. At 2 p.m. things looked great but then stocks reversed downward and by the close there were more stocks down than up on the NYSE , 1479 vs. 1681. While numerous sectors...
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LOOKING BACK : One major day-trading tenet is to look back at each trade & learn from both your successes & mistakes. This rule should apply to investing, speculating, everything. So let me do so today. THE SOFT AGRICULTURAL THEME . Yesterday I cleaned out my files and found when I first began...
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UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Tuesday, April 29th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. The stock market has some uncertainty – there’s that awful word again – about tomorrow’s Federal Reserve 2:15 p.m. interest rate policy announcement. For the first time in a very long time, we’re not quite sure what the Fed is going to...
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THE REAL ECONOMY VS. THE PAPER ECONOMY The Real Economy . Oil at a record, rice too. Gold hitting $1000 an ounce, silver way up. Corn prices boosted by ethanol demand. Food riots in Haiti, Guatemala, Argentina and more. 24 countries dropping food import tariffs because they are seeing food shortages...
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CHAIRMAN BERNANKE: “HOLD INTEREST RATES STEADY ON TUESDAY!” Hey, why not? What have we got to lose? Cutting interest rates sure isn’t working, right? Along with setting interest rate policy, the Fed has another role, that is being the “lender of last resort.” They’ve sure done that this past Tuesday...