THE BIG PICTURE Last Monday I presented the bull’s three pronged case , that: (1) the credit crisis is past it’s worst stages, (2) that we can skirt a recession or just experience a mild one and (3) that we have good value in stocks today. I offered the bull’s view up for balance, to...
THE ECONOMY Written Monday, May 5th, 2008: Regular Weekly Overview: Numerous economists are now saying the possibility of an US recession has passed. I think this change of viewpoint began about a week plus back when the Durable Goods Orders–Ex Transports for March rose +1.5%, better than the ...
Mon day, April 7 th , 2008 : Watching golf over the weekend, I know it’s so boring to many, I was amazed at the gorgeous setting of Punta Espada Golf Club, the Jack Nicklaus Course in the Dominican Republic . The water was blue & beautiful, the waves strong. If I get the chance, & I may, I want...
INFLATION VIEW/FED’S INFLATION VIEW . Out of Touch! Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers February 14 th that “inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored.” He says that each time he speaks and I’m totally sick of hearing it because I can’t agree. He must be...
Global Inflation a Problem . We’ve got a growing problem with US and global inflation, no matter what our Federal Reserve Bank says. Although our Fed ignores them, or says they will go down soon, food and energy costs are rising and global, right? Thus higher inflation is a global issue. ASIA . Many...
Recessions Differ from Mid-Cycle Slowdowns in that that are Self-Reinforcing . A self-reinforcing downturn, which normally leads to a recession has begun, reports Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Basically the self-reinforcing step by step downturn process...
THE ECONOMY Monday, February 18th, 2008: Maybe I’m taking the wrong approach, updating you each Monday on the health and path of the economy. And talking about the ongoing debate about recession or not lying ahead. Maybe the best approach is to look at a couple of the classic indicators of recession...